DRAG TO YOUR BOOKMARKS
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 69.7% probability of winning the Electoral College.
Last updated: Fri Jun 05, 2020. Updated daily. 150 days left until Election Day.
29.94%
215
ELECTORAL
VOTES (R)
69.72%
323
ELECTORAL
VOTES (D)
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Click on a state for more details
270 | 269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
2 to 1 odds of Biden president-elect
323 | 215 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
DC
HI
MA
CALIFORNIA
NY
WA
MD
VT
NJ
IL
DE
RI
CT
OR
ME
NM
CO
MN
VA
MI
NV
NH
FL
NC
WI
AZ
GA
PA
OH
TEXAS
IA
AK
MO
KS
SC
UT
MS
MT
KY
TN
IN
LA
ND
NE
OK
AL
WV
AR
ID
SD
WY
01938587796115135154173192211231250269288307327346365384404423442461480500519538
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes our generated based on 10k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+
About this forecast
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