DRAG TO YOUR BOOKMARKS
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 77.6% probability of winning the Electoral College. Our model more accurately predicts past elections than polling averages alone.
Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
22.2%
195
ELECTORAL
VOTES (R)
77.55% win chance
343
ELECTORAL
VOTES (D)
Hover the mouse over any state for data
Click on a state for more details
Election held
Tomorrow
Nov 3
MAINE
DISTRICTS
ME-1
ME-2
NEBRASKA
DISTRICTS
NE-1
NE-2
NE-3
270 | 269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
2 to 1 odds of Biden president-elect
343 | 195 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
CALIFORNIA
MA
DC
HI
VT
MD
WA
NY
CT
NJ
RI
IL
DE
ME
CO
OR
VA
MN
NM
MI
WI
NV
PA
FL
NH
IA
NC
AZ
GA
TEXAS
OH
AK
AR
MO
SC
MS
IN
KS
MT
TN
UT
KY
LA
AL
OK
ND
NE
WV
ID
SD
WY
01938587796115135154173192211231250269288307327346365384404423442461480500519538
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes are generated based on 20k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+
About this forecast
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