Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 69.7% probability of winning the Electoral College.
Last updated: Fri Jun 05, 2020. Updated daily. 150 days left until Election Day.
ELECTORAL VOTES (R)
ELECTORAL VOTES (D)
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270|269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
2 to 1 odds of Biden president-elect
323|215 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes our generated based on 10k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+−
Our model depends primarily on polls to predict vote outcomes. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. The Electoral College vote and probability is estimated using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Polls prove predictive even early on in the presidential election process. 200 days before election day, presidential polls have a Mean Absolute Error of 5.4 points (Jennings and Wlezien 2016). This means that on average, polls of the presidential race accurately predict the final margin 200 days out within 5.4 points.
In addition to polls, which we weight as 2/3rd of our predictions in our forecast, we incorporate a unique model based on "Media Partisanship". It uses measurements gathered from Google Trends in order to asses media polarization and thus predict vote margins, and it is predictive of past election outcomes