DRAG TO YOUR BOOKMARKS
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 69.8% probability of winning the Electoral College. Our model more accurately predicts past elections than polling averages alone.
Last updated: Tue Sep 29, 2020. Updated daily. 34 days left until Election Day.
29.96%
215
ELECTORAL
VOTES (R)
69.75% win chance
323
ELECTORAL
VOTES (D)
Hover the mouse over any state for data
Click on a state for more details
Election held
Tomorrow
Nov 3
 DECISIVE STATE
MAINE
DISTRICTS
ME-1
ME-2
NEBRASKA
DISTRICTS
NE-1
NE-2
NE-3
270 | 269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
2 to 1 odds of Biden president-elect
323 | 215 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
DC
MA
NY
HI
MD
CALIFORNIA
VT
WA
CT
NJ
RI
DE
IL
NM
OR
ME
VA
CO
MI
NV
MN
NH
WI
PA
NC
FL
AZ
GA
OH
TEXAS
IA
AK
SC
MT
MS
MO
KS
LA
IN
AR
TN
AL
UT
NE
KY
ND
ID
SD
OK
WV
WY
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Which states are most likely
to decide the 2020 election?
Last updated today.

Florida59.3% CHANCE
Biden48.4% +1.8
Trump46.7% +1.8
Undecided4.9% +1.8
20.2% chance to decide the winner
29 electoral votes
Pennsylvania76.15% CHANCE
Biden49.8% +5.3
Trump44.4% +5.3
Undecided5.8% +5.3
13.1% chance to decide the winner
20 electoral votes
Texas60.15% CHANCE
Trump46.9% +1.6
Biden45.4% +1.6
Undecided7.7% +1.6
10.3% chance to decide the winner
38 electoral votes
Michigan78.3% CHANCE
Biden49.7% +5.9
Trump43.7% +5.9
Undecided6.6% +5.9
7.7% chance to decide the winner
16 electoral votes
North Carolina62.9% CHANCE
Biden48.2% +2.1
Trump46.1% +2.1
Undecided5.7% +2.1
6.5% chance to decide the winner
15 electoral votes
Wisconsin74.95% CHANCE
Biden49.7% +4.6
Trump45.1% +4.6
Undecided5.2% +4.6
5.9% chance to decide the winner
10 electoral votes
Georgia50.25% CHANCE
Biden46.6% +0.5
Trump46.1% +0.5
Undecided7.3% +0.5
5.9% chance to decide the winner
16 electoral votes
Minnesota71.65% CHANCE
Biden46.1% +4.9
Trump41.1% +4.9
Undecided12.8% +4.9
5.9% chance to decide the winner
10 electoral votes
Arizona53.35% CHANCE
Biden47.6% +0.7
Trump46.9% +0.7
Undecided5.5% +0.7
5.8% chance to decide the winner
11 electoral votes
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes are generated based on 20k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+
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