DRAG TO YOUR BOOKMARKS
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 67.6% probability of winning the Electoral College. Our model more accurately predicts past elections than polling averages alone.
Last updated: Fri Oct 30, 2020. Updated daily. 4 days until Election Day.
31.99%
226
ELECTORAL
VOTES (R)
67.55% win chance
312
ELECTORAL
VOTES (D)
Hover the mouse over any state for data
Click on a state for more details
Election held
Tomorrow
Nov 3
 DECISIVE STATE
MAINE
DISTRICTS
ME-1
ME-2
NEBRASKA
DISTRICTS
NE-1
NE-2
NE-3
269 | 269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
3 to 1 odds of Biden president-elect
312 | 226 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
DC
HI
MA
CALIFORNIA
NY
MD
VT
DE
NJ
CT
IL
WA
RI
NM
OR
ME
VA
CO
MI
NV
NH
MN
PA
WI
FL
NC
GA
AZ
TEXAS
IA
OH
MS
AK
MO
KS
SC
IN
MT
LA
UT
NE
AR
AL
TN
KY
SD
ND
ID
OK
WV
WY
01938587796115135154173192211231250269288307327346365384404423442461480500519538
31.99%
Trump win chance
67.55%
Biden win chance
Which states are most likely
to decide the 2020 election?
Last updated today.

Florida57.85% CHANCE
Biden47.8% +1.1
Trump46.7% +1.1
Undecided5.5% +1.1
21.6% chance to decide the winner
29 electoral votes
Pennsylvania63.3% CHANCE
Biden48.8% +1.9
Trump46.9% +1.9
Undecided4.3% +1.9
14.6% chance to decide the winner
20 electoral votes
North Carolina58.65% CHANCE
Biden48.5% +1.2
Trump47.3% +1.2
Undecided4.2% +1.2
9.2% chance to decide the winner
15 electoral votes
Georgia50.55% CHANCE
Biden48.6% +0.4
Trump48.2% +0.4
Undecided3.2% +0.4
8% chance to decide the winner
16 electoral votes
Texas73.7% CHANCE
Trump48.1% +3.5
Biden44.5% +3.5
Undecided7.4% +3.5
7.5% chance to decide the winner
38 electoral votes
Michigan80.75% CHANCE
Biden49.4% +5.4
Trump44.0% +5.4
Undecided6.6% +5.4
7.5% chance to decide the winner
16 electoral votes
Wisconsin61.9% CHANCE
Biden48.9% +1.7
Trump47.2% +1.7
Undecided3.9% +1.7
7% chance to decide the winner
10 electoral votes
Minnesota70.95% CHANCE
Biden47.6% +3.5
Trump44.1% +3.5
Undecided8.3% +3.5
6.4% chance to decide the winner
10 electoral votes
Arizona52% CHANCE
Trump47.4% +0.3
Biden47.1% +0.3
Undecided5.5% +0.3
4.5% chance to decide the winner
11 electoral votes
Virginia88.7% CHANCE
Biden50.8% +6.8
Trump44.0% +6.8
Undecided5.2% +6.8
4% chance to decide the winner
13 electoral votes
Colorado96.15% CHANCE
Biden53.1% +6.9
Trump46.1% +6.9
Undecided0.8% +6.9
2.1% chance to decide the winner
9 electoral votes
Nevada83.85% CHANCE
Biden49.9% +6.1
Trump43.8% +6.1
Undecided6.3% +6.1
2.1% chance to decide the winner
6 electoral votes
Ohio85.2% CHANCE
Trump51.1% +5.3
Biden45.8% +5.3
Undecided3.1% +5.3
1.9% chance to decide the winner
18 electoral votes
New Hampshire77.5% CHANCE
Biden49.0% +4.3
Trump44.8% +4.3
Undecided6.2% +4.3
1.6% chance to decide the winner
4 electoral votes
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes are generated based on 20k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+
About this forecast
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