DRAG TO YOUR BOOKMARKS
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 77.4% probability of winning the Electoral College. Our model more accurately predicts past elections than polling averages alone.
Last updated: Fri Jul 10, 2020. Updated daily. 115 days left until Election Day.
22.28%
194
ELECTORAL
VOTES (R)
77.39%
344
ELECTORAL
VOTES (D)
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Click on a state for more details
MAINE
DISTRICTS
ME-1
ME-2
NEBRASKA
DISTRICTS
NE-1
NE-2
NE-3
270 | 269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
2 to 1 odds of Biden president-elect
344 | 194 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
CALIFORNIA
MA
DC
HI
VT
NY
MD
NJ
WA
CT
RI
CO
IL
DE
OR
MN
ME
VA
NM
VA
NM
NV
MI
WI
FL
PA
GA
NC
NH
IA
TEXAS
OH
AZ
MO
AR
MS
IN
TN
SC
UT
AK
MT
KS
AL
LA
KY
ND
OK
NE
WV
ID
SD
WY
01938587796115135154173192211231250269288307327346365384404423442461480500519538
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes our generated based on 10k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+
About this forecast
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