DRAG TO YOUR BOOKMARKS
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Biden having a 66.1% probability of winning the Electoral College. Our model more accurately predicts past elections than polling averages alone.
Last updated: Tue Dec 01, 2020. Updated daily. -28 days until Election Day.
33.54%
225
ELECTORAL
VOTES (R)
66.06% win chance
313
ELECTORAL
VOTES (D)
Hover the mouse over any state for data
Click on a state for more details
Election held
Tomorrow
Nov 3
 DECISIVE STATE
MAINE
DISTRICTS
ME-1
ME-2
NEBRASKA
DISTRICTS
NE-1
NE-2
NE-3
269 | 269 electoral vote spread
Majority of votes needed to win
3 to 2 odds of Biden president-elect
313 | 225 electoral vote spread
Most likely average electoral outcome
DC
HI
MA
CALIFORNIA
VT
NY
MD
NJ
RI
OR
DE
CT
IL
WA
ME
NM
CO
VA
MI
NV
NH
MN
WI
FL
GA
NC
PA
AZ
TEXAS
OH
IA
MO
SC
MT
MS
TN
KS
IN
UT
KY
AK
AL
NE
LA
OK
ND
ID
AR
SD
WV
WY
01938587796115135154173192211231250269288307327346365384404423442461480500519538
33.54%
Trump win chance
66.06%
Biden win chance
Which states are most likely
to decide the 2020 election?
Last updated today.

Florida54.25% CHANCE
Biden48.3% +0.6
Trump47.6% +0.6
Undecided4.1% +0.6
18.2% chance to decide the winner
29 electoral votes
Georgia51.55% CHANCE
Trump47.7% +0.1
Biden47.7% +0.1
Undecided4.6% +0.1
11.4% chance to decide the winner
16 electoral votes
Pennsylvania58.2% CHANCE
Trump49.0% +0.9
Biden48.1% +0.9
Undecided2.9% +0.9
10.4% chance to decide the winner
20 electoral votes
Michigan87.6% CHANCE
Biden50.6% +6.1
Trump44.5% +6.1
Undecided4.9% +6.1
9.8% chance to decide the winner
16 electoral votes
Texas60.95% CHANCE
Trump48.9% +1.6
Biden47.4% +1.6
Undecided3.7% +1.6
9.3% chance to decide the winner
38 electoral votes
North Carolina55.35% CHANCE
Trump48.0% +0.5
Biden47.4% +0.5
Undecided4.6% +0.5
9.3% chance to decide the winner
15 electoral votes
Wisconsin71.5% CHANCE
Biden50.0% +2.6
Trump47.4% +2.6
Undecided2.6% +2.6
7.6% chance to decide the winner
10 electoral votes
Arizona59.35% CHANCE
Trump48.3% +1.5
Biden46.9% +1.5
Undecided4.8% +1.5
4.6% chance to decide the winner
11 electoral votes
Virginia88.2% CHANCE
Biden50.0% +6.5
Trump43.5% +6.5
Undecided6.5% +6.5
4.1% chance to decide the winner
13 electoral votes
Minnesota77.25% CHANCE
Biden49.2% +3.9
Trump45.2% +3.9
Undecided5.6% +3.9
3.9% chance to decide the winner
10 electoral votes
Ohio78.4% CHANCE
Trump49.8% +4.2
Biden45.6% +4.2
Undecided4.6% +4.2
3.6% chance to decide the winner
18 electoral votes
Nevada77.8% CHANCE
Biden49.5% +3.6
Trump46.0% +3.6
Undecided4.5% +3.6
2.6% chance to decide the winner
6 electoral votes
Colorado95.75% CHANCE
Biden51.5% +9.4
Trump42.0% +9.4
Undecided6.5% +9.4
2.5% chance to decide the winner
9 electoral votes
Electoral College Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Biden or Trump winning becoming president-elect over time
Projected Electoral College Votes
Distribution of electoral college votes are generated based on 20k simulations.
Chances of a Trump win in states won by less than 5 points
Below is the probability of a Trump victory in states that either candidate carried by less than 5 points in 2016. These states' electoral votes add up to 133 out of 538.
How accurate are our predictions?+
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