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Is Trump or Biden winning AZ?
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Last updated: Mon Mar 08, 2021. Updated daily. -125 days until Election Day.
R
AZ
Trump wins by
1.5 points
vote prediction
59.4
%
win chance
40.6
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+1.5% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Oct '19
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Arizona forecast
Prediction:
46.9%
to
48.3%
Polling average in Arizona
47.4%
to
47.8%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
48.3%
to
51.7%
Ipsos likely voters Education-weighted
127d
50%
48%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
128d
52%
47%
Swayable likely voters Education-weighted
128d
50.6%
45.7%
Data for Progress likely voters Education-weighted
128d
50%
47%
Change Research likely voters Education-weighted
128d
50%
47%
Marist College likely voters Live-caller
128d
48%
48%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
129d
48.4%
46.1%
Emerson College likely voters Education-weighted
129d
48%
45.9%
AtlasIntel likely voters Education-weighted
129d
48.1%
50.4%
Big Data Poll likely voters Education-weighted
130d
45.3%
48%
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Media Partisanship Model in AZ
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
51.5
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-4
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
6.2
Change from 2016
+0.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
19.2
Change from 2016
+30.2
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
10.9
Change from 2016
+11.5
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
28.4
Change from 2016
+13.7
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 48.5)
21.8
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
48.3% Biden