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Is Trump or Biden winning AZ?
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Last updated: Fri Oct 30, 2020. Updated daily. 4 days until Election Day.
R
AZ
Trump wins by
0.3 points
vote prediction
52.0
%
win chance
48.0
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+0.3% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
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Arizona forecast
Prediction:
47.1%
to
47.4%
Polling average in Arizona
48.8%
to
45.7%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
46.5%
to
53.6%
Gravis Marketing likely voters
2d
48%
44%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
3d
52%
46%
Ipsos likely voters Education-weighted
3d
48%
46%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino registered v Live-caller Education-weighted
5d
50%
45%
OH Predictive Insights likely voters Education-weighted
5d
49%
46%
Susquehanna Polling & likely voters Education-weighted
8d
46.2%
46.6%
Ipsos likely voters Education-weighted
9d
49%
46%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
10d
47%
48%
RMG Research likely voters Education-weighted
11d
47%
46%
Change Research likely voters Education-weighted
11d
51%
45%
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Media Partisanship Model in AZ
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
51.5
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-4
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
6.2
Change from 2016
+0.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
19.2
Change from 2016
+30.2
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
10.9
Change from 2016
+11.5
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
28.4
Change from 2016
+13.7
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 48.5)
21.8
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
0% Biden