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Is Trump or Biden winning AZ?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
D
AZ
Biden wins by
0.7 points
vote prediction
47.8
%
win chance
52.2
%
400 days ago
Forecast in Arizona
Average:
47.5%
to
46.8%
Polls in Arizona
47.8%
to
42.9%
Media Search Trends Model
46.2%
to
53.9%
Data for Progress
6d ago
45%
43%
Change Research
13d ago
47%
45%
Morning Consult
13d ago
49%
42%
SSRS
15d ago
49%
45%
Redfield & Wilton
16d ago
46%
38%
Marist College
17d ago
50%
45%
Change Research
27d ago
51%
45%
YouGov
29d ago
46%
46%
OH Predictive Insights
32d ago
49%
44%
Data Orbital
40d ago
47.1%
45.4%
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Media Partisanship Model in AZ
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
51.5
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-4
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
6.2
Change from 2016
+0.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
19.2
Change from 2016
+30.2
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
10.9
Change from 2016
+11.5
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
28.4
Change from 2016
+13.7
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 48.5)
21.8
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
46.2% Biden