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Is Trump or Biden winning GA?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
D
GA
Biden wins by
0.6 points
vote prediction
46.7
%
win chance
53.3
%
400 days ago
Forecast in Georgia
Average:
47.3%
to
46.7%
Polls in Georgia
46.8%
to
45.4%
Media Search Trends Model
49.5%
to
50.5%
YouGov
8d ago
46%
45%
Monmouth University
12d ago
47%
47%
Morning Consult
13d ago
47%
46%
Trafalgar Group
21d ago
43.3%
49.8%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
24d ago
47%
43%
Public Policy Polling
43d ago
49%
45%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw
46d ago
47%
45%
Public Policy Polling
56d ago
48%
46%
TargetSmart/William & Mary
73d ago
40%
44%
Morning Consult
74d ago
47%
49%
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Media Partisanship Model in GA
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
36.4
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+19.3
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
3.1
Change from 2016
+2.2
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
7.7
Change from 2016
+19.6
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
7.6
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
18.2
Change from 2016
+9.4
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 63.6)
18.1
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
49.5% Biden