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Is Trump or Biden winning GA?
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Last updated: Fri May 14, 2021. Updated daily. -192 days until Election Day.
R
GA
Trump wins by
0.1 points
vote prediction
51.6
%
win chance
48.4
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+0.1% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Oct '19
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Mar '20
May '20
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Nov '20
Georgia forecast
Prediction:
47.7%
to
47.7%
Polling average in Georgia
46.1%
to
49.3%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
53.2%
to
46.8%
Trafalgar Group likely voters
193d
45.4%
49.7%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
194d
50%
49%
Swayable likely voters Education-weighted
194d
53.6%
44.3%
Data for Progress likely voters Education-weighted
194d
50%
48%
AYTM likely voters Education-weighted
194d
52%
48%
Landmark Communications likely voters Education-weighted
194d
46%
50.1%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage likely voters Education-weighted
194d
46.1%
48.1%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
195d
48.8%
46.4%
Emerson College likely voters Education-weighted
195d
48.8%
49.4%
AtlasIntel likely voters Education-weighted
195d
46.1%
48.3%
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Media Partisanship Model in GA
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
36.4
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+19.3
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
3.1
Change from 2016
+2.2
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
7.7
Change from 2016
+19.6
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
7.6
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
18.2
Change from 2016
+9.4
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 63.6)
18.1
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
53.2% Biden