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Is Trump or Biden winning GA?
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Last updated: Wed Aug 12, 2020. Updated daily. 82 days left until Election Day.
D
GA
Biden wins by
1 points
vote prediction
46.1
%
win chance
53.9
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+1% Biden margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Aug '19
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Forecast in Georgia
Average:
47.9%
to
46.8%
Polls in Georgia
46.8%
to
45.2%
Media Search Trends Model
50.1%
to
50%
SurveyUSA
4d ago
46%
44%
YouGov
12d ago
46%
45%
Monmouth University
16d ago
47%
48%
Morning Consult
17d ago
47%
46%
Trafalgar Group
25d ago
43.3%
49.8%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
28d ago
47%
43%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw
50d ago
47%
45%
TargetSmart/William & Mary
77d ago
40%
44%
Morning Consult
78d ago
47%
49%
Civiqs
86d ago
48%
47%
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Media Partisanship Model in GA
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
36.4
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+19.3
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
3.1
Change from 2016
+2.2
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
7.7
Change from 2016
+19.6
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
7.6
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
18.2
Change from 2016
+9.4
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 63.6)
18.1
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
50.1% Biden