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Is Trump or Biden winning GA?
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Last updated: Fri Oct 30, 2020. Updated daily. 4 days until Election Day.
D
GA
Biden wins by
0.4 points
vote prediction
49.5
%
win chance
50.5
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+0.4% Biden margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
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Georgia forecast
Prediction:
48.6%
to
48.2%
Polling average in Georgia
50.3%
to
46.4%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
46.7%
to
53.3%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
3d
50%
48%
Monmouth University likely voters Live-caller Education-weighted
3d
50%
46%
Civiqs likely voters Education-weighted
4d
51%
46%
University of Georgia likely voters Education-weighted
7d
46.5%
46.2%
YouGov likely voters Education-weighted
7d
49%
49%
Landmark Communications likely voters Education-weighted
9d
45%
49%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
10d
48%
48%
Siena College/The New likely voters Live-caller Education-weighted
11d
45%
45%
Emerson College likely voters Education-weighted
11d
47%
48.4%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
15d
50%
49%
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Media Partisanship Model in GA
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
36.4
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+19.3
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
3.1
Change from 2016
+2.2
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
7.7
Change from 2016
+19.6
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
7.6
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
18.2
Change from 2016
+9.4
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 63.6)
18.1
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
0% Biden