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Is Trump or Biden winning NC?
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Last updated: Mon May 17, 2021. Updated daily. -195 days until Election Day.
R
NC
Trump wins by
0.5 points
vote prediction
55.4
%
win chance
44.6
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+0.5% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Oct '19
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North Carolina forecast
Prediction:
47.4%
to
48%
Polling average in North Carolina
47.6%
to
47.8%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
49.3%
to
50.7%
Swayable likely voters Education-weighted
197d
52.3%
46.4%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
198d
51%
47%
Ipsos likely voters Education-weighted
198d
50%
48%
Data for Progress likely voters Education-weighted
198d
50%
48%
Change Research likely voters Education-weighted
198d
49%
47%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
199d
49.1%
48.4%
Emerson College likely voters Education-weighted
199d
47.4%
47.1%
Frederick Polls likely voters Live-caller Education-weighted
199d
51%
49%
AtlasIntel likely voters Education-weighted
199d
47.5%
49.5%
Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage likely voters Education-weighted
199d
43.6%
48%
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Media Partisanship Model in NC
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
47
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+8.7
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
5.2
Change from 2016
+3.2
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
17.9
Change from 2016
+30.2
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
10.9
Change from 2016
+9.1
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
30.7
Change from 2016
+28.5
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 53)
23.1
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
49.3% Biden