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Is Trump or Biden winning TX?
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Last updated: Wed Oct 20, 2021. Updated daily. -351 days until Election Day.
R
TX
Trump wins by
1.6 points
vote prediction
61.0
%
win chance
39.0
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+1.6% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
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Texas forecast
Prediction:
47.4%
to
48.9%
Polling average in Texas
46.9%
to
49.5%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
50.4%
to
49.7%
Data for Progress likely voters Education-weighted
354d
49%
48%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
355d
47%
51%
Emerson College likely voters Education-weighted
355d
48.7%
49.7%
AtlasIntel likely voters Education-weighted
355d
47.3%
50%
Public Policy Polling voters Education-weighted
357d
50%
48%
Gravis Marketing likely voters
358d
45%
50%
RMG Research likely voters Education-weighted
358d
46%
50%
YouGov likely voters Education-weighted
359d
47%
49%
University of Massachusetts likely voters Education-weighted
360d
47%
48%
Swayable likely voters Education-weighted
360d
47.5%
48.6%
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Media Partisanship Model in TX
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
21.2
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+9.9
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
2.1
Change from 2016
+1.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
3.8
Change from 2016
+27.4
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
6.5
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
14.8
Change from 2016
-14.8
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 78.8)
19.7
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
50.4% Biden