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Is Trump or Biden winning TX?
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Last updated: Fri Oct 30, 2020. Updated daily. 4 days until Election Day.
R
TX
Trump wins by
3.5 points
vote prediction
73.7
%
win chance
26.3
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+3.5% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
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Texas forecast
Prediction:
44.5%
to
48.1%
Polling average in Texas
45%
to
47.6%
Media Search Trends Adjustment
47.2%
to
52.8%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
3d
47%
51%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino registered v Live-caller Education-weighted
5d
46%
49%
Siena College/The New likely voters Live-caller Education-weighted
5d
43%
47%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
10d
48%
47%
YouGov likely voters Education-weighted
10d
44.7%
50%
University of Texas likely voters Education-weighted
10d
48%
45%
Quinnipiac University likely voters Live-caller Education-weighted
11d
47%
47%
SurveyMonkey likely voters Education-weighted
15d
47%
51%
Morning Consult likely voters Education-weighted
19d
47%
49%
Civiqs likely voters Education-weighted
24d
48%
48%
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Media Partisanship Model in TX
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
21.2
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+9.9
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
2.1
Change from 2016
+1.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
3.8
Change from 2016
+27.4
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
6.5
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
14.8
Change from 2016
-14.8
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 78.8)
19.7
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
0% Biden