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Is Trump or Biden winning TX?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
D
TX
Biden wins by
0.2 points
vote prediction
49.5
%
win chance
50.5
%
400 days ago
Forecast in Texas
Average:
47.6%
to
47.4%
Polls in Texas
46.7%
to
45%
Media Search Trends Model
48.6%
to
51.4%
Morning Consult
6d ago
47%
46%
Morning Consult
13d ago
47%
45%
Quinnipiac University
19d ago
45%
44%
YouGov
29d ago
45%
46%
University of Texas
32d ago
46%
41%
YouGov
40d ago
44%
48%
Public Policy Polling
44d ago
48%
46%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw
46d ago
45%
44%
Public Policy Polling
50d ago
46%
48%
Public Policy Polling
65d ago
48%
48%
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Media Partisanship Model in TX
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
21.2
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+9.9
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
2.1
Change from 2016
+1.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
3.8
Change from 2016
+27.4
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
6.5
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
14.8
Change from 2016
-14.8
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 78.8)
19.7
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
48.6% Biden