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Is Trump or Biden winning TX?
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Last updated: Wed Aug 12, 2020. Updated daily. 82 days left until Election Day.
R
TX
Trump wins by
1.1 points
vote prediction
57.6
%
win chance
42.4
%
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+1.1% Trump margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Aug '19
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Nov '20
Forecast in Texas
Average:
46.4%
to
47.5%
Polls in Texas
45.9%
to
44.9%
Media Search Trends Model
47.4%
to
52.7%
Trafalgar Group
7d ago
43.4%
49.4%
Morning Consult
10d ago
47%
46%
Morning Consult
17d ago
47%
45%
Quinnipiac University
23d ago
45%
44%
YouGov
33d ago
45%
46%
University of Texas
36d ago
48%
43%
YouGov
44d ago
44%
48%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw
50d ago
45%
44%
Quinnipiac University
72d ago
43%
44%
Morning Consult
78d ago
43%
50%
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Media Partisanship Model in TX
Plural Vote's state-by-state forecasts are informed both by polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100) (predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
21.2
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+9.9
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
2.1
Change from 2016
+1.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
3.8
Change from 2016
+27.4
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
6.5
Change from 2016
+5.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
14.8
Change from 2016
-14.8
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 78.8)
19.7
Our prediction based on this information (regression adjustment)
47.4% Biden