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Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the House?
Our statistical model based on polls, voting history, and inter-district similarity forecasts Democrats having a 72.7% probability of a majority.
Last updated: Mon Sep 27, 2021. Updated daily. -328 days left until Election Day.
27.34%
203
HOUSE
SEATS (R)
72.66%
232 (15-seat majority)
HOUSE
SEATS (D)
7
2
1
6
9
8
5
4
10
3
1
3
5
4
2
WA
OR
2
3
1
5
6
7
9
12
11
15
10
14
13
17
18
19
16
22
21
23
4
20
25
28
29
30
24
26
37
34
27
31
43
40
32
38
35
8
41
39
33
44
47
48
46
45
42
36
50
51
53
52
49
CA
NV
2
4
1
3
1
2
ID
MT
ND
SD
WY
3
1
2
NE
CO
5
4
1
3
7
2
6
4
1
2
3
UT
1
3
2
4
KS
OK
3
5
1
4
2
AZ
8
6
1
7
9
5
2
3
4
NM
3
1
2
IA
4
1
3
2
MN
13
19
26
11
24
32
12
3
4
1
36
14
22
10
27
34
15
28
35
20
23
16
21
25
30
33
6
5
8
18
29
2
7
17
31
9
TX
4
5
6
3
2
1
LA
AR
1
3
2
4
6
5
1
4
2
7
3
8
MO
7
8
6
5
4
3
1
2
14
10
16
9
5
17
6
8
4
18
13
12
15
2
1
3
11
7
IL
WI
1
2
4
5
3
7
6
8
MI
6
7
11
3
12
13
14
8
9
10
5
4
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
IN
5
9
4
16
11
14
13
12
8
3
10
1
2
15
6
7
OH
3
4
6
2
1
KY
TN
8
5
6
2
1
9
7
1
2
3
4
MS
5
4
7
1
2
3
AL
4
3
5
GA
14
9
11
7
WV
3
2
1
VA
9
5
7
4
3
2
1
11
6
10
8
NC
11
10
5
6
12
13
8
9
7
2
3
1
4
SC
4
3
2
6
1
7
5
10
6
4
13
5
12
3
2
8
1
MD
1
2
7
3
4
5
8
6
DE
3
5
6
14
18
17
13
11
4
2
1
7
8
9
10
12
NJ
2
1
3
4
6
15
16
PA
12
10
8
7
11
5
9
23
27
24
11
7
4
2
NY
1
3
8
5
12
9
10
22
25
26
17
13
15
14
6
16
20
21
19
18
VT
CT
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
RI
NH
1
2
1
2
ME
MA
1
3
2
4
7
8
9
5
6
1
2
5
3
11
12
6
4
13
10
14
7
15
9
8
17
18
16
20
21
19
25
24
26
22
23
27
FL
6
AK
1
2
HI
House popular vote forecast (weighted polling average)
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 3 →
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+6.6% Dem margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Oct '19
Dec '19
Mar '20
May '20
July '20
Aug '20
Oct '20
Nov '20
House Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Democrats or Republicans winning a House majority over time
Projected House Partisan Control
Distribution of House race control are generated based on 20k simulations.
Chances of a Republican win in the closest House races
Below is the probability of a Republican victory in Senate races within 67% probability.
Probabilities in Republican-held districts won by Clinton
These districts were won by Clinton in 2016 but are represented by a Republican.
Probabilities in Democratic-held districts won by Trump
These districts were won by Trump in 2016 but are represented by a Democrat.
How accurate are our predictions?+
About this forecast
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