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Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the Senate?
Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Democrats having a 58% probability of winning the Senate majority.
Last updated: Tue Sep 29, 2020. Updated daily. 34 days left until Election Day.
35.56%
49
SENATE
SEATS (R)
58.02%
51 (+4 seats)
SENATE
SEATS (D)
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Click on a state for more details
Dots indicate a likely change of party
50 | 50 seat spread
With VP, a tie is needed for control
2 to 1 odds of a Democratic majority
51.22 | 48.78 seat spread
Most likely average seat outcome
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MA
NJ
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IA
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TEXAS
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MT
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MS
KY
AL
LA
NE
OK
TN
AR
ID
SD
WV
WY
R
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48121721252933384246505459636771758084889296101
Senate Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Democrats or Republicans winning a Senate majority over time
Projected Senate Partisan Control
Distribution of Senate race control are generated based on 10k simulations.
Chances of a Republican win in the closest Senate races
Below is the probability of a Republican victory in Senate races within 85% probability.
Chances of a Republican win in swing states
These states were carried by less than 5 points in the 2016 presidential race.
How accurate are our predictions early on?+
About this forecast
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