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Are Dems or Reps winning AZ?
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Last updated: Mon Mar 08, 2021. Updated daily. -125 days left until Election Day.
D
AZ
Dems win by
1.5 points
Senate vote prediction
Martha McSally (R)Mark Kelly (D)
41.6
%
win chance
58.4
%
Forecast in Arizona
Average:
47.4%
to
46%
Recent polls in Arizona
48.7%
to
44.6%
Media Partisanship Model
46.7%
to
53.4%
Ipsos
127d ago
53%
44%
Marist College
128d ago
52%
46%
Change Research
128d ago
51%
47%
Data for Progress
128d ago
54%
46%
Swayable
128d ago
55%
45%
Emerson College
129d ago
50.3%
47.6%
Morning Consult
129d ago
47.9%
44.4%
Data Orbital
130d ago
47.1%
46%
Siena College/The New
130d ago
50%
43%
SSRS
130d ago
52%
45%
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Media Partisanship Model in AZ
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
52.5
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-5
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
6.3
Change from 2016
0
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
34.3
Change from 2016
+15.1
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
13.1
Change from 2016
+9.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
24.1
Change from 2016
+18
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 47.5)
25.3
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
46.7% Democrats