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Are Dems or Reps winning AZ?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
D
AZ
Dems win by
4.4 points
Senate vote prediction
Martha McSally (R)Mark Kelly (D)
26.3
%
win chance
73.7
%
Forecast in Arizona
Average:
49.1%
to
44.7%
Recent polls in Arizona
50.4%
to
41.4%
Media Partisanship Model
45.3%
to
54.7%
Change Research
13d ago
47%
45%
Morning Consult
13d ago
52%
36%
SSRS
15d ago
50%
43%
Redfield & Wilton
16d ago
53%
35%
Marist College
17d ago
53%
41%
Change Research
27d ago
52%
45%
YouGov
29d ago
46%
42%
OH Predictive Insights
32d ago
52%
43%
Data Orbital
40d ago
49.9%
42.7%
Change Research
41d ago
53%
44%
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Media Partisanship Model in AZ
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
52.5
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-5
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
6.3
Change from 2016
0
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
34.3
Change from 2016
+15.1
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
13.1
Change from 2016
+9.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
24.1
Change from 2016
+18
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 47.5)
25.3
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
45.3% Democrats