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Are Dems or Reps winning AZ?
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Last updated: Fri Oct 30, 2020. Updated daily. 3 days left until Election Day.
D
AZ
Dems win by
4.1 points
Senate vote prediction
Martha McSally (R)Mark Kelly (D)
27.0
%
win chance
73.0
%
Forecast in Arizona
Average:
48.1%
to
43.9%
Recent polls in Arizona
49.9%
to
42.1%
Media Partisanship Model
46.7%
to
53.3%
Emerson College
81d ago
51.81%
41.21%
Change Research
82d ago
49%
43%
OH Predictive Insights
87d ago
48%
43%
Data for Progress
89d ago
50%
40%
Change Research
96d ago
47%
45%
Morning Consult
96d ago
52%
36%
Redfield & Wilton
99d ago
53%
35%
Change Research
110d ago
52%
45%
YouGov
112d ago
46%
42%
OH Predictive Insights
115d ago
52%
43%
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Media Partisanship Model in AZ
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
52.5
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-5
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
6.3
Change from 2016
0
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
34.3
Change from 2016
+15.1
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
13.1
Change from 2016
+9.3
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
24.1
Change from 2016
+18
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 47.5)
25.3
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
46.7% Democrats