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Are Dems or Reps winning CO?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
D
CO
Dems win by
10 points
Senate vote prediction
Cory Gardner (R)John Hickenlooper (D)
7.2
%
win chance
92.8
%
Forecast in Colorado
Average:
51.2%
to
41.2%
Recent polls in Colorado
50%
to
40%
Media Partisanship Model
55%
to
45%
Morning Consult
13d ago
48%
42%
Public Policy Polling
39d ago
51%
40%
Keating Research/OnSight Public
97d ago
54%
36%
Montana State University
111d ago
47.76%
31.13%
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Media Partisanship Model in CO
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
44.3
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
0
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
12.6
Change from 2016
-1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
41.8
Change from 2016
+15.3
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
33.3
Change from 2016
+7.9
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
49.4
Change from 2016
-3.3
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 55.7)
44.7
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
55% Democrats