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Are Dems or Reps winning CO?
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Last updated: Wed Oct 20, 2021. Updated daily. -351 days left until Election Day.
D
CO
Dems win by
10.4 points
Senate vote prediction
Cory Gardner (R)John Hickenlooper (D)
5.8
%
win chance
94.2
%
Forecast in Colorado
Average:
51.8%
to
41.4%
Recent polls in Colorado
52.8%
to
40.4%
Media Partisanship Model
52.2%
to
47.8%
Keating Research/OnSight Public
354d ago
53%
42%
Data for Progress
354d ago
54%
45%
Swayable
354d ago
56.9%
43.1%
Morning Consult
355d ago
51.5%
43.6%
Morning Consult
366d ago
50%
42%
RBI Strategies &
370d ago
53%
39%
RMG Research
371d ago
51%
42%
Civiqs
372d ago
53%
42%
Keating Research/OnSight Public
373d ago
51%
41%
Morning Consult
375d ago
50%
40%
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Media Partisanship Model in CO
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
44.3
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
0
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
12.6
Change from 2016
-1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
41.8
Change from 2016
+15.3
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
33.3
Change from 2016
+7.9
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
49.4
Change from 2016
-3.3
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 55.7)
44.7
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
52.2% Democrats