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Are Dems or Reps winning GA?
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Last updated: Mon May 17, 2021. Updated daily. -195 days left until Election Day.
R
GA
Reps wins by
0.3 points
Senate vote prediction
David A. Perdue (R)Jon Ossoff (D)
52.9
%
win chance
47.1
%
Forecast in Georgia
Average:
46.9%
to
47.2%
Recent polls in Georgia
46.1%
to
48%
Media Partisanship Model
52.3%
to
47.8%
Landmark Communications
198d ago
46.9%
49%
Data for Progress
198d ago
51%
46%
Swayable
198d ago
47.9%
49.2%
Emerson College
199d ago
48.9%
47.6%
Morning Consult
199d ago
46.5%
45.5%
Landmark Communications
202d ago
47.3%
47.2%
Monmouth University
203d ago
49%
47%
Civiqs
204d ago
51%
45%
Swayable
204d ago
47.8%
49.4%
YouGov
207d ago
46%
47%
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Media Partisanship Model in GA
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
54.1
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+1.6
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
5.3
Change from 2016
0
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
11.9
Change from 2016
+15.4
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
7.1
Change from 2016
+5.8
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
24.1
Change from 2016
+3.5
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 45.9)
16.4
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
52.3% Democrats