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Are Dems or Reps winning GA?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
R
GA
Reps wins by
2.3 points
Senate vote prediction
David A. Perdue (R)Jon Ossoff (D)
63.5
%
win chance
36.5
%
Forecast in Georgia
Average:
44.7%
to
47%
Recent polls in Georgia
42.7%
to
46.2%
Media Partisanship Model
50.7%
to
49.4%
YouGov
8d ago
43%
45%
Monmouth University
12d ago
43%
49%
Morning Consult
13d ago
42%
45%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
24d ago
45%
44%
Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw
46d ago
42%
45%
Public Policy Polling
56d ago
45%
44%
Civiqs
82d ago
42%
45%
BK Strategies
87d ago
41%
46%
Public Opinion Strategies
93d ago
41%
43%
Cygnal
103d ago
39.4%
45.3%
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Media Partisanship Model in GA
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
54.1
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
+1.6
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
5.3
Change from 2016
0
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
11.9
Change from 2016
+15.4
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
7.1
Change from 2016
+5.8
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
24.1
Change from 2016
+3.5
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 45.9)
16.4
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
50.7% Democrats