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Are Dems or Reps winning NC?
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Last updated: Mon May 17, 2021. Updated daily. -195 days left until Election Day.
D
NC
Dems win by
1.3 points
Senate vote prediction
Thom Tillis (R)Cal Cunningham (D)
41.4
%
win chance
58.6
%
Forecast in North Carolina
Average:
47.1%
to
45.8%
Recent polls in North Carolina
47.7%
to
45.2%
Media Partisanship Model
48.9%
to
51.2%
Swayable
197d ago
53.2%
46.8%
Change Research
198d ago
50%
46%
Data for Progress
198d ago
51%
46%
Ipsos
198d ago
48%
46%
Frederick Polls
199d ago
50%
46%
Emerson College
199d ago
50.4%
47.2%
Morning Consult
199d ago
47.4%
42.5%
SSRS
200d ago
47%
44%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion
201d ago
47%
44%
Cardinal Point Analytics
202d ago
40.65%
45.9%
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Media Partisanship Model in NC
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
59
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-3.3
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
9.5
Change from 2016
-1.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
35.8
Change from 2016
+12.3
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
13.1
Change from 2016
+6.9
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
43.7
Change from 2016
+15.5
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 41)
30.4
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
48.9% Democrats