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Are Dems or Reps winning NC?
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Last updated: Sat Aug 08, 2020. Updated daily. 86 days left until Election Day.
D
NC
Dems win by
5.7 points
Senate vote prediction
Thom Tillis (R)Cal Cunningham (D)
19.5
%
win chance
80.5
%
Forecast in North Carolina
Average:
48.9%
to
43.1%
Recent polls in North Carolina
48.9%
to
40.5%
Media Partisanship Model
49%
to
51%
YouGov
8d ago
48%
39%
Change Research
13d ago
52%
40%
Morning Consult
13d ago
46%
37%
Cardinal Point Analytics
15d ago
42.9%
43.1%
Marist College
17d ago
50%
41%
Redfield & Wilton
18d ago
47%
36%
Cardinal Point Analytics
24d ago
47.3%
44.2%
Change Research
27d ago
49%
42%
Public Policy Polling
31d ago
47%
39%
Change Research
41d ago
51%
41%
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Media Partisanship Model in NC
Plural Vote's state-by-state Senate forecasts are informed both by Senate polls and a metric of "media interest". Our predictions are based two-thirds on polling, and the rest on this measurement. We created a comprehensive model using real-time (past 3 months) Google Trends data to gauge media interest. The volume of interest in polarizing or partisan media outlets reflect the partisan mood of the electorate. Our predictions informed by media interest are accurate in past elections, including 2016.
Fox News Relative Search Volume (0-100)
(predictive weight: 44.2%)
3-month Average:
59
Change from 2016 (10/7-11/7 Google Trends data)
-3.3
Washington Post (predictive weight: 22.4%)
9.5
Change from 2016
-1.1
MSNBC (predictive weight: 18.4%)
35.8
Change from 2016
+12.3
New York Times (predictive weight: 17.6%)
13.1
Change from 2016
+6.9
Huffington Post (predictive weight: 15.8%)
43.7
Change from 2016
+15.5
Average (normalized to 0-100; inverse of Fox News is calculated 41)
30.4
Our prediction based on this information
(regression adjustment)
49% Democrats