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Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the House?
Our statistical model based on polls, voting history, and interdistrict similarity forecasts Democrats having a 45.8% probability of a majority.
Last updated: Mon Sep 27, 2021. Updated daily. 407 days left until Election Day.
55.3%
220
HOUSE
SEATS (R)
45.85%
215 (3-seat majority)
HOUSE
SEATS (D)
7
2
1
6
9
8
5
4
10
3
1
3
5
4
2
WA
OR
2
3
1
5
6
7
9
12
11
15
10
14
13
17
18
19
16
22
21
23
4
20
25
28
29
30
24
26
37
34
27
31
43
40
32
38
35
8
41
39
33
44
47
48
46
45
42
36
50
51
53
52
49
CA
NV
2
4
1
3
1
2
ID
MT
ND
SD
WY
3
1
2
NE
CO
5
4
1
3
7
2
6
4
1
2
3
UT
1
3
2
4
KS
OK
3
5
1
4
2
AZ
8
6
1
7
9
5
2
3
4
NM
3
1
2
IA
4
1
3
2
MN
13
19
26
11
24
32
12
3
4
1
36
14
22
10
27
34
15
28
35
20
23
16
21
25
30
33
6
5
8
18
29
2
7
17
31
9
TX
4
5
6
3
2
1
LA
AR
1
3
2
4
6
5
1
4
2
7
3
8
MO
7
8
6
5
4
3
1
2
14
10
16
9
5
17
6
8
4
18
13
12
15
2
1
3
11
7
IL
WI
1
2
4
5
3
7
6
8
MI
6
7
11
3
12
13
14
8
9
10
5
4
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
IN
5
9
4
16
11
14
13
12
8
3
10
1
2
15
6
7
OH
3
4
6
2
1
KY
TN
8
5
6
2
1
9
7
1
2
3
4
MS
5
4
7
1
2
3
AL
4
3
5
GA
14
9
11
7
WV
3
2
1
VA
9
5
7
4
3
2
1
11
6
10
8
NC
11
10
5
6
12
13
8
9
7
2
3
1
4
SC
4
3
2
6
1
7
5
10
6
4
13
5
12
3
2
8
1
MD
1
2
7
3
4
5
8
6
DE
3
5
6
14
18
17
13
11
4
2
1
7
8
9
10
12
NJ
2
1
3
4
6
15
16
PA
12
10
8
7
11
5
9
23
27
24
11
7
4
2
NY
1
3
8
5
12
9
10
22
25
26
17
13
15
14
6
16
20
21
19
18
VT
CT
2
1
5
4
3
2
1
RI
NH
1
2
1
2
ME
MA
1
3
2
4
7
8
9
5
6
1
2
5
3
11
12
6
4
13
10
14
7
15
9
8
17
18
16
20
21
19
25
24
26
22
23
27
FL
6
AK
1
2
HI
House popular vote forecast (weighted polling average)
+50
Democratic margin
Tied
margin
+50
Republican margin
Election day
Nov. 8 2022 →
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+1.2% Dem margin
Sun Jul 01 2018
Jun '20
Aug '21
Oct '21
Jan '21
Mar '21
May '21
Jul '21
Aug '21
House Majority Probability Over Time
Chance of Democrats or Republicans winning a House majority over time
Projected House Partisan Control
Distribution of House race control are generated based on 20k simulations.
Chances of a Republican win in the closest House races
Shown below are the probabilities of a Republican victory in Senate races within 67% probability.
Probabilities in Republican-held districts predicted to flip
These districts are predicted to be won by a Democrat but are represented by a Republican.
Probabilities in Democratic-held districts predicted to flip
These districts are predicted to be won by a Republican but are represented by a Democrat.
How accurate are our predictions?+
About this forecast
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