Drag this to your bookmarks
Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries?
Starting with the Iowa caucus on February the 3rd, 2020, American voters will begin casting votes for the Democratic nominee they wish to compete President Trump. In our statistical model, we forecast which Democratic candidate will win the largest number of votes. We factor in opinion polls and betting odds in order to form a comprehensive forecast for nine of the most high-profile Democrats that have declared their candidacy for president. Our forecast automatically updates on a real-time basis as betting odds and polls change.
Last updated: Sun January 26 2020
Probability of winning largest popular vote share
Joe Biden NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Bernie Sanders NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Kamala Harris NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Elizabeth Warren NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Pete Buttigieg NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Beto O'Rourke NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Cory Booker NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Andrew Yang NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
Tulsi Gabbard NAN% chance
IN PAST day week month
State-by-state forecast
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
South Carolina
Alabama
California
Massachusetts
Texas
Virginia
Michigan
Florida
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Oregon
CANDIDATE
PROBABILITY OF WIN
EXPECTED WIN pct. %
WIN PROB.
NAN %
NAN %
NAN %
NAN %
NAN %
% VOTE SHARE
0 %
11 %
23 %
34 %
45 %
2%
0
Joe Biden D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Bernie Sanders D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Kamala Harris D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Elizabeth Warren D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Pete Buttigieg D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Beto O'Rourke D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Cory Booker D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Andrew Yang D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
2%
0
Tulsi Gabbard D
NAN %
WIN CHANCE
NAN%
80% OUTCOME RANGE NAN% TO NAN%
Top-two projected vote share over time
We currently estimate that Joe Biden will win the popular vote with an NAN-point advantage over Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden has a NAN% chance of winning the most votes in the 2020 Democratic primary and Bernie Sanders has a NAN% chance.
50%
vote share
25 0
Current Biden polling advantage
NAN%
New Year
2020 →