Thus follows is the Plural Vote electoral forecast for the 2017 Georgia 6th district congressional election:
The Plural Vote forecast shows the race to be a complete nail-biter, with each candidate having roughly even odds. Handel made significant gains in the last two weeks of her campaign, where she gained approximately two points in her margin against Ossoff in polling averages - eliminating his lead.
The election is so close that we calculated the odds of a recount, which the Official Code of Georgia (GA code) allows candidates to request in cases where the vote margin between the two leading candidates is less than or equal to 1%, and it has an approximately 1 in 7 likelihood of occurring (14%). There is an 88.5% chance that the election will be decided in terms of a single-digit margin - further accentuating the closeness of this particular race, which has garnered significant national attention.
This model relies on creating polling averages for each candidates, weighting recent polls more highly based on an exponential function, and calculating the probabilities of various outcomes of the race, including the chance of a win for either major candidate, using a mixture of logistic and normal distribution based on the past accuracy of special election polling (approximately a 95% MOE or CI of +\- 7.5 pts for averages and +\- 8.5 pts for a single poll, assuming normal distribution). Logistic distribution is used due to its heavy-tailed distribution and therefore higher level of uncertainty factored into the model.
The results of this special congressional election will come out at about 7 PM EST.
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