GEORGIA 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ELECTION FORECAST
0%
100% pct.
50%
JON OSSOFF
49.8%
KAREN HANDEL
50.2%
UNDECIDED
2%
20,000 ELECTION SIMULATIONSAVG. HANDEL LEAD OF 0.4 POINTS53.2% | 46.8% PROB.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: Range of values in % of simulations
75% Interval: Range of D+3.4 pt. Dem win to R+4.3 pt. Rep win
95% Interval: Range of D+10.1 pt. Dem win to R+11 pt. Rep win
R+0.4
probability %candidate
46.8% CHANCE OF WIN
JON OSSOFF
53.2% CHANCE OF WIN
KAREN HANDEL
1/2 odds of Handel win: About the same chance of Ossoff winning as getting heads on a 50-50 coin flip.
candidate range of winning outcomesprobability %
KAREN HANDELR+0 > R+10Single-digit win46.6% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+0 > D+10Single-digit win41.9% prob.
ALLD+1 > R+1Recount14% prob.
KAREN HANDELR+10 >Double-digit win6.3% prob.
JON OSSOFFD+10 >Double-digit win5.2% prob.
POLLING DATA
WSB/Landmark CommunicationsTIE5-5 win odds6/18-18/17
49%
49%
2%
Trafalgar GroupR+2 7-3 win odds6/17-18/17
49%
51%
1%
CSP PollingR+1 6-4 win odds6/15-17/17
48%
49%
3%
WSB/Landmark CommunicationsD+27-3 win odds6/15-15/17
50%
48%
2%
Opinion SavvyTIE5-5 win odds6/14-15/17
50%
49%
1%
Trafalgar GroupD+37-3 win odds6/10-13/17
50%
47%
2%
SurveyUSATIE5-5 win odds6/7-11/17
47%
47%
6%
AJC/Abt AssociatesD+79-1 win odds6/5-8/17
51%
44%
5%
WSB/Landmark CommunicationsD+37-3 win odds6/6-7/17
50%
47%
3%
WSB/Landmark CommunicationsD+16-4 win odds5/30-31/17
49%
48%
3%
SurveyUSAD+79-1 win odds5/16-20/17
51%
44%
6%
Gravis MarketingD+16-4 win odds5/8-10/17
47%
45%
8%
WSB/Landmark CommunicationsR+2 7-3 win odds5/3-4/17
47%
49%
4%