Plural Vote
ABOUT OUR MISSION
Recent articles
1
VOTING RIGHTS
How long were 2020 voting lines by metro area?
Using wait times regressed on search trends for the 2016 election, we have estimated 2020 wait times by metro area. Browse below.
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2
FORECAST
Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the House in 2022?
Our statistical model based on polls, voting history, and inter-district similarity forecasts Republicans having a 49.8% probability of a majority.
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3
FORECAST
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our model depends on polls to predict vote outcomes. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. The Electoral College vote and probability is estimated using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. With 218 days left, our poll-based statistical model forecasts that Biden has a 68% probability of winning the Electoral College on election day.
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4
FORECAST
Will Democrats or Republicans win control of the House?
Our statistical model based on polls, voting history, and inter-district similarity forecasts Democrats having a 72.7% probability of a majority.
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5
2020 ELECTION
Biden is outperforming 2016 in the Sun Belt by 9.6 points as he takes the lead in Texas and Georgia
Compared to 2012, the trend towards the Democrats in the Sun Belt is even more staggering — 10.6 points more for Vice President Biden than President Obama.
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We're never afraid to speak out.
At Plural Vote, we believe that "we the people" should have open access to accurate information about our government, in order to hold the powers that be to account. We also believe that data is one of the best tools to influence and shape public policy.
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