Plural Vote
ABOUT OUR MISSION
Recent articles
1
FORECAST
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our model depends on polls to predict vote outcomes. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. The Electoral College vote and probability is estimated using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. With 218 days left, our poll-based statistical model forecasts that Biden has a 68% probability of winning the Electoral College on election day.
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2
2020 ELECTION
New data show Biden making massive inroads with Trump's base, threatening Trump's re-election chance
In the general election, Biden is improving in states with non-college whites to a statistically-significant degree. This demographic shifted to Trump in 2016; a reversal bodes well for Biden. Additionally, Biden has been polling 8.4 points better in the Midwest than Clinton in 2016.
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3
2016 ELECTION
Polls suggest that Biden is picking up some voters that opposed Clinton because of sexism
Biden is gaining more voters in states where women occupy fewer management positions, a proxy metric for sexism. Polls show Biden improving more on Clinton’s 2016 performance in states where women perform worse than men on various metrics of equality. If these metrics are viewed as proxies for sexism, this is broadly consistent with social science research indicating that hostile sexism played a role in Clinton’s loss in 2016.
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We're never afraid to speak out.
At Plural Vote, we believe that "we the people" should have open access to accurate information about our government, in order to hold the powers that be to account. We also believe that data is one of the best tools to influence and shape public policy.
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