Plural Vote - Polls suggest that Biden is picking up some voters that opposed Clinton because of sexism
Polls suggest that Biden is picking up some voters that opposed Clinton because of sexism
Biden is gaining more voters in states where women occupy fewer management positions, a proxy metric for sexism.
Posted under 2016 ELECTION
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Biden is gaining more voters in states where women occupy fewer management positions, a proxy metric for sexism

Polls show Biden improving more on Clinton’s 2016 performance in states where women perform worse than men on various metrics of equality. If these metrics are viewed as proxies for sexism, this is broadly consistent with social science research indicating that hostile sexism played a role in Clinton’s loss in 2016.

For the graph illustrating that Biden gains more where women have fewer management jobs, the p-value is p = 0.03 meaning the result is statistically significant. This indicates that there is a 97% chance that this association is not due to random chance. The correlation strength is r = 35%.

Additionally, there is a strong correlation between the wage gap in a state and Biden's improvement in general election polls over Clinton in 2016.

Screenshot2020-04-04at5.47.27PM.png

Biden is doing significantly better in states where the wage gap between women and white men is larger than average.

The p-value for this finding is p = 0.02 meaning the result is statistically significant. This indicates that there is a 98% chance that this association is not due to random chance. The correlation strength is r = 37.8%.

There are potential confounding variables that could affect this association, including  strengths of Biden in regions with more inequality.

The data source for wage gap and management position data is the Center for American Progress.

The source of the state-by-state polling data is the 2020 presidential electoral forecast we published. Feel free to follow @plural_vote on Twitter for more electoral statistics.

Written by PLURAL VOTE. This article was last updated on 4/5/2020.
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Biden is gaining more voters in states where women occupy fewer management positions, a proxy metric for sexism. Polls show Biden improving more on Clinton’s 2016 performance in states where women perform worse than men on various metrics of equality. If these metrics are viewed as proxies for sexism, this is broadly consistent with social science research indicating that hostile sexism played a role in Clinton’s loss in 2016.
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