In general election surveys, Biden is improving in states with non-college whites to a statistically-significant degree. According to exit polls, this segment of the electorate was integral to Trump's win. White Americans without college degrees have been trending towards the GOP for many years, voting for Trump in 2016 by a historically-large margin. A reversal of this trend bodes well for Biden, who is outperforming Clinton the most in states with a higher-than-average population of non-college whites.
Region | Biden Improvement Over 2016 |
---|---|
Northeast | Biden gain of 2.7 points |
West | Biden gain of 3.9 points |
South | Biden gain of 5.8 points |
Midwest | Biden gain of 8.4 points |
There is an r = ~44.5% correlation (with a statistically significant p-value of 0.005) between how much Biden improves over Clinton and the share of non-college whites in a state. The source of the state-by-state polling data is the 2020 presidential electoral forecast published on Plural Vote. Feel free to follow @plural_vote on Twitter for more electoral statistics.