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1
FORECAST
Who will control the House of Representatives?
In our statistical model, we factor in national generic ballot polling, the partisan intensity of all of the nation's 435 districts, and each incumbent's strength as a candidate to form the most comprehensive 2018 House of Representatives forecast available. Our forecast fluctuates on a day-to-day basis as we update it for newly-vacated seats, candidate primary results, and polls.
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2
FORECAST
How we forecast the House midterm elections
Our forecast, taken as a whole, is a multilevel model (MLM). Each district has its own forecast generated, and has its uncertainty (or probability) calculated around its prediction. Our forecast, taken as a whole, is a multilevel model (MLM). Each district has its own forecast generated, and has its uncertainty (or probability) calculated around its prediction. For each district in the model, we make an assumption of normality. This means that we assume a normally-distributed error for the probability distribution generated for each district. We model the probabilities on logistic distribution. The logistic distribution curve we employ looks like the following below. Later, we explain more how we derived the variance of the distribution.
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