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FORECAST
Is Trump or Biden winning the race for president?
Our model depends on polls to predict vote outcomes. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. The Electoral College vote and probability is estimated using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. With 218 days left, our poll-based statistical model forecasts that Biden has a 68% probability of winning the Electoral College on election day.
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