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Who will control the House of Representatives?
On November 6th, American voters will elect a majority of either Republicans or Democrats to Congress, after nearly 8 years of Republicans controlling the House. In our statistical model, we forecast which party will control the House. We factor in national generic ballot polling, special election results, the partisan lean of all of the nation's 435 districts, and whether each seat's incumbent is running to form a comprehensive and accurate 2018 House forecast. Our forecast fluctuates on a day-to-day basis as we update it for newly-vacated seats, special elections, and polls. We estimate that Democrats will win a 11-seat majority, 207 R - 228 D, and gain 34 seats.
Last updated: Tuesday 04/23/2019
Probability of winning House majority
64.1%▾9.5% over past month 35.9%
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