Plural Vote - Plural Vote Terms of Service
Plural Vote Terms of Service
You implicitly consent to these terms as you visit our website.
Posted under PLURAL VOTE
Published 1 year ago
1. Terms
By accessing the website at, you are agreeing to be bound by these terms of service, all applicable laws and regulations, and agree that you are responsible for compliance with any applicable local laws. If you do not agree with any of these terms, you are prohibited from using or accessing this site. The materials contained in this website are protected by applicable copyright and trademark law.

2. Use License
Permission is granted to temporarily download one copy of the materials (information or software) on Plural Vote's website for non-commercial viewing only. This is the grant of a license, not a transfer of title, and under this license you may not:
modify or copy the materials;
use the materials for any commercial purpose, or for any public display (commercial or non-commercial) without attribution;
remove any copyright or other proprietary notations from the materials; or
transfer the materials to another person or "mirror" the materials on any other server.
This license shall automatically terminate if you violate any of these restrictions and may be terminated by Plural Vote at any time. Upon terminating your viewing of these materials or upon the termination of this license, you must destroy any downloaded materials in your possession whether in electronic or printed format.

3. Disclaimer
The materials on Plural Vote's website are provided on an 'as is' basis. Plural Vote makes no warranties, expressed or implied, and hereby disclaims and negates all other warranties including, without limitation, implied warranties or conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement of intellectual property or other violation of rights.
Further, Plural Vote does not warrant or make any representations concerning the accuracy, likely results, or reliability of the use of the materials on its website or otherwise relating to such materials or on any sites linked to this site.

4. Limitations
In no event shall Plural Vote or its suppliers be liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages for loss of data or profit, or due to business interruption) arising out of the use or inability to use the materials on Plural Vote's website, even if Plural Vote or a Plural Vote authorized representative has been notified orally or in writing of the possibility of such damage. Because some jurisdictions do not allow limitations on implied warranties, or limitations of liability for consequential or incidental damages, these limitations may not apply to you.

5. Accuracy of materials
The materials appearing on Plural Vote's website could include technical, typographical, or photographic errors. Plural Vote does not warrant that any of the materials on its website are accurate, complete or current.

6. Links
Plural Vote has not reviewed all of the sites linked to its website and is not responsible for the contents of any such linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement by Plural Vote of the site. Use of any such linked website is at the user's own risk.

7. Modifications
Plural Vote may revise these terms of service for its website at any time without notice. By using this website you are agreeing to be bound by the then current version of these terms of service.

8. Governing Law
These terms and conditions are governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of California and you irrevocably submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts in that State or location.
Written by PLURAL VOTE. This article was last updated on 4/10/2018.
Who will control the House of Representatives?
In our statistical model, we factor in national generic ballot polling, the partisan intensity of all of the nation's 435 districts, and each incumbent's strength as a candidate to form the most comprehensive 2018 House of Representatives forecast available. Our forecast fluctuates on a day-to-day basis as we update it for newly-vacated seats, candidate primary results, and polls.
How we forecast the House midterm elections
Our forecast, taken as a whole, is a multilevel model (MLM). Each district has its own forecast generated, and has its uncertainty (or probability) calculated around its prediction. Our forecast, taken as a whole, is a multilevel model (MLM). Each district has its own forecast generated, and has its uncertainty (or probability) calculated around its prediction. For each district in the model, we make an assumption of normality. This means that we assume a normally-distributed error for the probability distribution generated for each district. We model the probabilities on logistic distribution. The logistic distribution curve we employ looks like the following below. Later, we explain more how we derived the variance of the distribution.
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